Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a4c…b76e politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$8
politics 33% −$2
other 14% $0
sports 13% +$1
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 5 -5.9% -14.9% 20% 0% -14.3%
≤90d 7 -4.4% -13.5% 29% 0% -12.9%
all 34 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.8%
10% -19.2% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage330d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $28 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $26 −$9 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 10 $19 −$4 -20%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Aug 10 $56 +$2 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Aug 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before August? Jul 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 30 $7 $0 +1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 29 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $19 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $29 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $28 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $17 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $26 32d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $35 33d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $9 33d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $27 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 34d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 34d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $6 34d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 34d
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 SELL Yes 7¢ $11 105d
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 7¢ $10 105d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 7¢ $8 106d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 7¢ $4 106d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY No 9¢ $15 106d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY No 9¢ $1 106d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 9¢ $3 106d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY No 9¢ $3 106d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $6 319d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.68 · official $31.68 (match) · 89 history records