Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a4d…2714 weather 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate81%124W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$36
sports 1% −$1
other 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 32 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 108 +1.8% -7.9% 92% 7% -9.3%
all 153 +5.8% -4.3% 81% 10% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 10% -10.7%
10% -13.5% 8% -19.3%
15% -21.8% 8% -27.1%
20% -29.5% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses124 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage115d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 19? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 7? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 4? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 1? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on May 29? May 30 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 28? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 27? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 25? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on May 24? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on May 23? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 22? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on May 20? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 17? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 17? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 16? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 15? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 14? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on May 13? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or below on May 12? May 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on May 11? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on May 11? May 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on May 10? May 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on May 9? May 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 9? May 09 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $32 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $36 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $36 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $36 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $29 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $36 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $35 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $35 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $35 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $35 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $8 22d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $27 22d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $35 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $35 25d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $35 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 293 history records