Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8a4e…1ba4 sports 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,429 (+1%) realized +$6,467 · open −$5,038
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%45W / 66L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$1,161per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$655est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11,477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,465
7 days−$3,423
14 days−$5,153
30 days−$16,406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$14,141
sports 32% −$3,388
world 23% −$2,512
other 7% −$7,480
economics 2% −$1,200
tech 1% −$99
crypto 0% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.4% -23.5% 46% 46% -22.3%
≤30d 89 -19.1% -26.8% 39% 38% -27.8%
≤90d 105 -16.2% -24.1% 43% 42% -4.9%
all 111 -19.7% -27.4% 41% 40% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 40% -6.5%
10% -34.3% 39% -15.4%
15% -40.7% 32% -23.6%
20% -46.5% 24% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,012) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,169 vs −$731 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$11,477
Realized+$6,467
Unrealized−$5,038
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses45 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$655
Open positions16
Markets (closed)111 / 127
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,161
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $2,000 $1,906 −$94 (-5%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 54¢ 88¢ $750 $1,224 +$474 (+63%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $1,000 $1,140 +$140 (+14%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $1,000 $1,091 +$91 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $1,000 $1,071 +$71 (+7%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 63¢ 65¢ $1,035 $1,069 +$33 (+3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $3,000 $877 −$2,123 (-71%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $1,000 $871 −$129 (-13%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 25¢ $1,000 $781 −$219 (-22%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 75¢ 20¢ $2,000 $544 −$1,456 (-73%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 40¢ 12¢ $1,000 $302 −$698 (-70%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $100 $294 +$194 (+194%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ $1,000 $150 −$850 (-85%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 30¢ $500 $18 −$482 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $1,012 +$626 +62%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $1,019 +$1,721 +169%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $732 +$348 +48%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $2,031 −$480 -24%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $1,012 +$665 +66%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 13 $313 +$76 +24%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,028 +$1,368 +68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $988 −$988 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $1,025 −$866 -84%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,015 +$8 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $2,042 −$1,216 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 08 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $2,028 +$854 +42%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $2,988 −$2,988 -100%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $2,500 +$1,292 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1,000 +$1,251 +125%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $6,000 +$3,083 +51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 01 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 01 $1,029 −$1,000 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$836 +84%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,107 −$6,107 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 31 $1 +$8 +786%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act May 31 $1 +$3 +291%
ITF Kranjska Gora: Calvin Mueller vs Giuseppe La Vela May 31 $1 +$3 +250%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut May 31 $1 +$3 +250%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Esenler Erokspor vs. Fenerbahce May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $808 3h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 59¢ $1,012 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $389 7h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 32¢ $1,020 8h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 35¢ $1,019 8h
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha 27¢ $1,022 9h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $210 9h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 52¢ $1,014 9h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 38¢ $1,019 10h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 43¢ $1,017 10h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 61¢ $1,012 26h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $31 27h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $31 27h
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 36¢ $1,019 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 50¢ $1,015 2d
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Mary Stoiana 50¢ $1,015 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 67¢ $732 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Adam Walton 76¢ $1,007 2d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ $1,008 2d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer SELL Tristan Boyer 39¢ $774 2d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 49¢ $1,015 2d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer SELL Tristan Boyer 38¢ $777 2d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 48¢ $1,016 2d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova SELL Ashlyn Krueger 99¢ $1,677 2d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Ashlyn Krueger 59¢ $1,012 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Hannah Klugman 84¢ $1,005 2d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 74¢ $1,008 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova BUY Anna Blinkova 80¢ $313 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,476.83 · official $11,478.70 (match) · 406 history records