Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a54…2418 crypto 55 markets active 5d ago coverage 367d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$146 (-2%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$3
world 27% +$10
other 12% −$104
economics 9% −$1
tech 7% −$1
culture 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 33% -17.7%
≤30d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 20% -9.8%
≤90d 27 +0.1% -9.4% 37% 15% -11.7%
all 55 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 7% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 7% -11.3%
10% -18.1% 7% -19.8%
15% -26.0% 7% -27.5%
20% -33.3% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

367d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage367d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? Jun 10 $9 +$8 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 11-17? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 11-17? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 23 $18 +$18 +105%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-13? May 15 $18 +$27 +146%
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026? May 15 $412 $0 +0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 15 $442 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 15 $423 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 May 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 May 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 09 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 09 $465 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i May 09 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $16 +$12 +70%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $158 −$156 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 27 $665 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 9-15? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in January? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 January 5-11? Jan 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7? Jan 06 $13 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,900 and $4,000 on November 4? Dec 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Octavian Berceanu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by- Nov 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.90 on November 5? Nov 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Oct 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Oct 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 15–August 22? Aug 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2025 US Open? Jul 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 23 $8 $0 +0%
F1 season canceled or other team wins? Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jacob Fearnley 23¢ $14 22d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $527 24d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes $0 24d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 24d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $378 24d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $503 24d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $477 24d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $478 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $6 32d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 32d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $419 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $6 32d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 32d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $14 32d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $322 32d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $422 32d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 48¢ $18 34d
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $21 34d
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 SELL No 100¢ $34 34d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 34d
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 SELL No 100¢ $34 34d
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $18 34d
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 BUY No 100¢ $68 34d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $2 38d
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records