Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a5f…8788 politics 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 666d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% −$19
other 13% −$2
economics 12% −$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 109 -9.7% -18.3% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -26.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage666d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $53 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Mar 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Xan John be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Feb 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania Presidential Elec Jan 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Lily Phillips has sex with between 250-499 men in a day? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Maccabi TLV win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will RB Leipzig win the Bundesliga? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ben Wikler be the next DNC chair? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will George Kittle be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Notre Dame win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will De’Von Achane be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 20 $0 $0 -3%
Everton wins the Premier League? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will Brentford be relegated? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
GOP wins popular vote by 5-6%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $4 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $52 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $52 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 21d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 21d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 21d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 21d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 21d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 21d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 28d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 29d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 38d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 39d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 45d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 45d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 55d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 55d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 68d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 69d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 72d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 73d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 83d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 83d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 89d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $53 89d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $53 98d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $53 99d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records