Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a61…02d2 sports 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$405 (-7%) realized −$389 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$5
14 days−$70
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$348
other 12% +$25
world 4% −$81
politics 1% −$63
tech 1% −$47
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 57% 36% -10.1%
≤30d 40 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 45% -10.9%
≤90d 53 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 43% -15.2%
all 78 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 45% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 45% -16.8%
10% -22.9% 41% -24.7%
15% -30.3% 29% -32.0%
20% -37.1% 22% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$48 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$389
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 38
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage175d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $118 −$46 -39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $108 +$10 +9%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $100 +$25 +25%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $87 +$70 +81%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $42 +$45 +107%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $44 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 +$7 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$4 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$38 -74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $35 +$15 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$7 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$14 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $158 −$7 -5%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $231 −$87 -38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $223 +$37 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $182 +$42 +23%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $67 −$66 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $401 +$31 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $327 +$76 +23%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $226 +$101 +45%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $198 +$55 +28%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$2 -2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $161 −$40 -25%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $99 −$20 -21%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $113 −$112 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $146 +$67 +46%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $80 −$34 -42%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $39 +$42 +108%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $61 +$75 +122%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $60 +$33 +55%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $166 −$163 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $111 +$78 +70%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $55 −$54 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $95 −$94 -99%
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs Nix Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Pla May 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs Nix Team - Game 2 Winner May 22 $14 +$6 +41%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 22 $18 −$4 -21%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team - Game 2 Winner May 20 $8 +$4 +51%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team - Game 1 Winner May 20 $87 −$87 -100%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Nix Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $57 +$42 +73%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Nix Team - Game 1 Winner May 19 $44 +$15 +33%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Stray Team - Game 2 Winner May 18 $54 −$10 -19%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 13 $137 −$82 -60%
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani May 02 $12 −$12 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 33¢ $72 29m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $118 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 70¢ $118 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $108 2h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $125 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $100 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 87¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 87¢ $74 5h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 87¢ $8 5h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 87¢ $16 5h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 86¢ $99 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $56 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $49 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 21h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $157 22h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $87 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $87 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $42 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $42 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $44 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 55¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $24 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $25 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $17 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $17 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 181 history records