Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a62…1e9e world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$15 (+18%) realized +$44 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +30.8% +18.4% 50% 50% +98.9%
≤30d 2 +30.8% +18.4% 50% 50% +98.9%
≤90d 2 +30.8% +18.4% 50% 50% +98.9%
all 2 +30.8% +18.4% 50% 50% +98.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.4% 50% +98.9%
10% +7.0% 50% +79.8%
15% -3.3% 50% +62.5%
20% -12.8% 50% +46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +120% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +120% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$5 · ×9.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.94 per $1 lost it wins $9.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$47 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.35 · official $23.04 · 10 history records