Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a62…69b2 sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$162 (-31%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%45W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$142
other 13% −$33
politics 6% +$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.9% -15.7% 57% 24% -16.7%
≤30d 99 -18.7% -26.4% 45% 34% -40.1%
≤90d 99 -18.7% -26.4% 45% 34% -40.1%
all 99 -18.7% -26.4% 45% 34% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.4% 34% -40.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 27% -45.9%
15% -39.9% 25% -51.1%
20% -45.8% 13% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses45 / 54
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)99 / 104
History coverage22d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -26%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 07 $5 +$2 +42%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $45 −$27 -60%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $35 −$14 -39%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $6 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $7 +$4 +50%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $5 $0 +9%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $9 +$8 +83%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $18 +$11 +62%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 −$1 -29%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 $0 +1%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 $0 -10%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $3 −$1 -39%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $3 −$1 -27%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 +$1 +43%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner May 26 $1 $0 +41%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $3 +$1 +48%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 $0 -23%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 96¢ $6 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 92¢ $6 30h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $1 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $1 40h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 63¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 78¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 79¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 97¢ $3 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 77¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 77¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 77¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 77¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.82 · official $16.82 (match) · 603 history records