Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8a65…a3de other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$454 (-45%) realized −$398 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$341
sports 40% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -34.6% -40.9% 33% 33% -83.7%
≤30d 3 -34.6% -40.9% 33% 33% -83.7%
≤90d 3 -34.6% -40.9% 33% 33% -83.7%
all 3 -34.6% -40.9% 33% 33% -83.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 33% -83.7%
10% -46.5% 33% -85.3%
15% -51.7% 33% -86.7%
20% -56.4% 33% -88.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$252 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized−$398
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 62¢ $168 $123 −$45 (-27%)
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos Gustavo Almeida 66¢ 61¢ $132 $122 −$10 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA W Jun 23 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $299 −$295 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $212 −$209 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $169 1h
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Gustavo Almeida 66¢ $133 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $299 22h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $104 22h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $107 23h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA W BUY No 50¢ $51 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.99 · official $387.99 · 8 history records