Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a66…b08a politics 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,608 (-1%) realized −$2,611 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%32W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,676per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$19
14 days−$61
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$155
other 39% +$263
sports 8% −$2,749
culture 4% −$13
economics 3% −$7
world 3% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 +3.3% -6.5% 7% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 96 +1.5% -8.2% 8% 4% -10.5%
all 155 +5.0% -5.0% 21% 12% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 12% -10.5%
10% -14.1% 12% -19.0%
15% -22.4% 12% -26.9%
20% -30.0% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,560) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized−$2,611
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses32 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 157
History coverage155d
Avg bet$1,676
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $267 $267 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $221 $224 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $300 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $498 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $313 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $2,759 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $4,541 −$6 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,005 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $274 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $3,014 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $6,264 −$6 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,105 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,337 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $2,559 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,679 −$6 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $6,497 −$8 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,160 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,710 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $7,977 −$9 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $3,167 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5,147 −$7 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,138 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,769 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,391 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,835 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,619 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,086 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2,652 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,567 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $5,659 −$6 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $59 +$76 +129%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $60 +$74 +124%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,053 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $578 +$2 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,184 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,854 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2,264 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $3,817 −$5 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $3,579 −$6 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $4,095 −$6 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $73 +$93 +129%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $267 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $299 21h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 23h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $497 41h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $498 43h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $374 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $375 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $313 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $313 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $289 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $289 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $398 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $399 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $329 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $330 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $838 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $839 5d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $273 5d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $274 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $557 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $558 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,103 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,105 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,120 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,122 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,044 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,147 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $490.86 · official $490.86 (match) · 585 history records