Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a69…5a45 crypto 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 411d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,596 (+27%) realized +$5,596 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%73W / 91L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$64
14 days+$5
30 days−$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$6,070
crypto 23% −$678
other 22% +$441
sports 19% −$463
world 3% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.1% +0.5% 33% 22% +29.1%
≤30d 90 -18.9% -26.7% 42% 36% -18.9%
≤90d 133 -18.5% -26.2% 44% 36% -18.8%
all 164 -17.2% -25.1% 45% 36% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 36% +14.9%
10% -32.2% 26% +3.9%
15% -38.8% 16% -6.1%
20% -44.8% 15% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$33 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

411d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,596
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses73 / 91
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 177
History coverage411d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $20 +$22 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -67%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$62 +305%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $71 −$70 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $130 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $132 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $256 +$60 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $81 −$15 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $153 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$33 +63%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $33 −$33 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$17 -16%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$39 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$8 +31%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 +$96 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $77 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $129 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$15 -36%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $36 −$2 -5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $36 +$24 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/ BUY 3¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 77¢ $43 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will BUY 25¢ $19 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 36¢ $20 15h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germa BUY 18¢ $20 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $23 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $21 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both T BUY 3¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND Will Port BUY 43¢ $84 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $83 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win BUY 13¢ $35 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Al BUY 3¢ $34 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Sp BUY 3¢ $30 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Spre BUY 5¢ $57 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $31.88 · 783 history records