Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a6b…6e11 world 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,610 (-3%) realized −$1,633 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%47W / 31L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$669per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$344
7 days+$381
14 days−$326
30 days−$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$2,278
sports 9% +$614
other 5% +$255
politics 2% −$984
crypto 2% +$955
economics 1% −$52
weather 0% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.6% -0.8% 60% 60% +1.0%
≤30d 36 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 50% -12.0%
≤90d 39 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 51% -22.1%
all 78 -6.0% -14.9% 60% 42% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 42% -12.0%
10% -23.1% 27% -20.4%
15% -30.5% 19% -28.1%
20% -37.3% 10% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$738) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$197 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized−$1,633
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses47 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 83
History coverage168d
Avg bet$669
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Colombia 74¢ 80¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 81¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $502 −$64 -13%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$53 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $303 +$180 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $51 +$53 +104%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $202 +$80 +40%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$2 -4%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $404 +$209 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$93 -92%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $101 +$38 +38%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $354 +$270 +76%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 22 $599 −$246 -41%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $2,220 −$994 -45%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 −$15 -72%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 −$23 -52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $72 +$30 +42%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$22 +38%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$25 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $64 −$63 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $65 −$64 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$51 +238%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $77 +$23 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 +$26 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $79 +$21 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $707 +$308 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,300 +$29 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,193 +$113 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $1,000 +$170 +17%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $148 −$146 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $100 −$98 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $2,719 −$2,381 -88%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $601 +$99 +17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $1,500 +$424 +28%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 10 $500 +$63 +13%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 05 $50 −$3 -7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $81 −$31 -38%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 03 $528 +$58 +11%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $400 −$400 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 27 $4,000 +$28 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $2,000 +$20 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $2,000 +$30 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $2,000 +$27 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $4,000 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Colombia 74¢ $202 26m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 29m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Colombia 71¢ $185 29m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 46¢ $85 30m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $101 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 75¢ $438 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Colombia 76¢ $201 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 8h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 46h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY 46¢ $300 46h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 71¢ $202 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 38¢ $59 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $201 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $61 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 54¢ $101 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 AND BUY 37¢ $102 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 99¢ $613 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 64¢ $404 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $354 5d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 33¢ $352 5d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 53¢ $599 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.25 · official $525.23 (match) · 173 history records