Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8A 0x8a6c…fc59 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$410 (-9%) realized −$297 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%4W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,030
7 days+$1,831
14 days+$1,831
30 days+$1,831
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$343
world 32% −$931
other 29% +$2,373
crypto 6% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +329.8% +288.8% 43% 43% +51.7%
≤30d 7 +329.8% +288.8% 43% 43% +51.7%
≤90d 10 +201.8% +173.1% 30% 30% +30.7%
all 29 +16.7% +5.6% 14% 14% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 14% +13.2%
10% -4.5% 14% +2.3%
15% -13.7% 14% -7.6%
20% -22.2% 14% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -87% → late +114% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$782 vs −$78 · ×10.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses4 / 25
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage126d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $262 $234 −$28 (-11%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $714 +$1,354 +190%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $713 +$357 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $205 −$121 -59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $261 +$1,241 +476%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $705 −$700 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 23 $200 −$199 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 24 $140 −$126 -90%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -97%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $268 +$175 +65%
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mohammad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 25 $45 −$45 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $167 −$167 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $624 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $514 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $393 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $536 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $102 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $102 1h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $510 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,021 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 6¢ $82 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $270 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,502 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 99¢ $86 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $174 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $705 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $47 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 19d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY No 4¢ $200 39d
Iran leadership change by April 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 66d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.38 · official $239.58 (match) · 71 history records