Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8a6f…78a3 crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate82%46W / 10L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day90.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +8.8% -1.6% 82% 62% -4.6%
≤30d 56 +8.8% -1.6% 82% 62% -4.6%
≤90d 56 +8.8% -1.6% 82% 62% -4.6%
all 56 +8.8% -1.6% 82% 62% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 62% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 43% -13.7%
15% -19.6% 25% -22.0%
20% -27.5% 14% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$29 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses46 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 77¢ 76¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $121 −$60 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$45 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$35 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $802 +$28 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $155 −$84 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $71 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $61 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $61 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $60 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $62 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $60 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $61 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $802 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.61 · official $28.44 · 191 history records