Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a70…0519 sports 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,739 (-7%) realized −$3,647 · open −$1,092
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%104W / 299L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$1,075est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$4,413
crypto 10% −$3,269
other 5% −$508
finance 0% −$11
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -14.0% -22.2% 35% 35% -20.0%
≤30d 131 -35.1% -41.3% 26% 26% -27.5%
≤90d 403 -32.0% -38.5% 26% 26% -19.5%
all 403 -32.0% -38.5% 26% 26% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 26% -19.5%
10% -44.4% 26% -27.2%
15% -49.7% 25% -34.3%
20% -54.7% 25% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$133 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$3,647
Unrealized−$1,092
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses104 / 299
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,075
Open positions4
Markets (closed)403 / 407
History coverage53d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Esport Academy Copenhagen 41¢ 10¢ $490 $119 −$372 (-76%)
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group A Team Novaq 56¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Gen.G Global Academy 46¢ 0¢ $238 $0 −$238 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner Team Novaq 31¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$90 +87%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $129 +$116 +90%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $204 +$335 +164%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $112 +$138 +123%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $153 +$231 +151%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $263 +$239 +91%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $96 −$94 -98%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $86 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $298 −$292 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Chiefs win? Jun 20 $142 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $204 +$441 +216%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 −$2 -2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $108 −$105 -98%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $277 −$272 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $352 −$347 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $348 −$216 -62%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $114 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $199 −$195 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $155 −$152 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $220 +$185 +84%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $160 −$157 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $99 +$62 +62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $94 −$92 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $51 −$4 -8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $207 −$204 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $305 +$310 +102%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $496 −$488 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $295 −$290 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$100 -96%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $97 −$93 -96%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $202 +$333 +165%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $173 +$290 +167%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $369 +$432 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 41¢ $499 47m
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To BUY Team Novaq 66¢ $237 1h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regul BUY Gen.G Global Academy 50¢ $165 1h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regul BUY Gen.G Global Academy 49¢ $25 2h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regul BUY Gen.G Global Academy 42¢ $25 2h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regul BUY Gen.G Global Academy 33¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Novaq 18¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Novaq 14¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To BUY Team Novaq 42¢ $117 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $194 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Novaq 45¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Novaq 34¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Novaq 40¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Novaq 36¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Novaq 35¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner SELL Infinite 100¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL Infinite 100¢ $539 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner SELL Infinite 100¢ $250 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 44¢ $112 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner SELL Infinite 100¢ $245 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 52¢ $129 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Infinite 37¢ $204 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam SELL Team Novaq 100¢ $383 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 59¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou BUY GAMEPOINT 41¢ $204 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Novaq 99¢ $502 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.44 · official $119.44 (match) · 883 history records