Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8A 0x8a72…be4f other 25 markets active 7h ago coverage 16d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$1,018 (-12%) realized −$1,025 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%9W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$327per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$2,555

7 days−$1,136

14 days−$1,498

30 days−$1,246

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-19.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-13.0%	-21.3%	32%	32%	-24.6%
≤30d	24	-10.6%	-19.1%	38%	38%	-23.4%
≤90d	24	-10.6%	-19.1%	38%	38%	-23.4%
all	24	-10.6%	-19.1%	38%	38%	-23.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.1%	38%	-23.4%
10%	-26.9%	38%	-30.7%
15%	-33.9%	33%	-37.4%
20%	-40.4%	25%	-43.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late -11% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$331 vs −$281 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.7 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$38

Realized−$1,025

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses9 / 15

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage16d

Avg bet$327

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$32	$38	+$7 (+21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$211	−$190	-90%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$256	−$36	-14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$607	−$389	-64%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?	Jun 15	$408	−$408	-100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	Jun 15	$814	−$633	-78%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan?	Jun 15	$510	−$510	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	Jun 15	$61	−$61	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$409	−$328	-80%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$357	−$357	-100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$355	+$272	+77%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland?	Jun 14	$307	+$1,344	+437%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$393	+$293	+74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$508	−$185	-36%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$254	−$254	-100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$256	+$62	+24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$305	+$334	+109%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 12	$133	−$133	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$254	−$124	-49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$404	+$167	+41%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 07	$325	+$203	+62%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	Jun 05	$153	−$153	-100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 03	$103	+$50	+49%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 03	$461	−$461	-100%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	May 31	$304	+$251	+83%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	4¢	$33	6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	5¢	$22	19h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	43¢	$211	19h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$220	19h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$256	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	24¢	$218	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$607	29h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	45¢	$61	45h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	37¢	$408	45h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	31¢	$510	45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	5¢	$81	45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	24¢	$409	46h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	49¢	$508	2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	SELL Yes	28¢	$182	2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	26¢	$307	2d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	SELL Yes	100¢	$627	2d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	56¢	$355	2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	34¢	$357	2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland?	SELL Yes	99¢	$1,651	2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland?	BUY Yes	18¢	$307	2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$686	2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	56¢	$393	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	31¢	$323	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	47¢	$508	2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland?	BUY Yes	50¢	$254	2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland?	SELL Yes	31¢	$318	2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland?	BUY Yes	24¢	$256	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$305	3d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	21¢	$133	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	28¢	$129	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.40 · official $38.40 (match) · 53 history records