Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8a76…647e other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-14%) realized −$7 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$11
sports 33% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -37.8% -43.7% 50% 50% -61.0%
≤30d 3 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 67% -36.0%
≤90d 3 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 67% -36.0%
all 3 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 67% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 67% -36.0%
10% -25.1% 67% -42.1%
15% -32.3% 33% -47.7%
20% -39.0% 33% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$3 +24%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 6d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 7d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.72 · official $68.72 (match) · 10 history records