Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8a7b…782f other 283 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$45,034 (+24%) realized +$43,916 · open +$1,118
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate74%142W / 49L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$675per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$21,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 40% +$12,489
politics 39% +$1,505
other 13% +$2,280
world 5% +$537
culture 2% +$551
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% +$9
finance 0% +$4
tech 0% +$66
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +34.2% +21.4% 85% 46% +1.0%
≤30d 79 +53.8% +39.2% 77% 44% -3.7%
≤90d 191 +62.0% +46.5% 74% 45% -1.2%
all 191 +62.0% +46.5% 74% 45% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.5% 45% -1.2%
10% +32.5% 35% -10.6%
15% ← realistic here +19.7% 30% -19.3%
20% +8.0% 25% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +70% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$3 · ×39.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×124.61 per $1 lost it wins $124.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$21,150
Realized+$43,916
Unrealized+$1,118
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses142 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions104
Markets (closed)191 / 283
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$675
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 104 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,700 $2,715 +$15 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,974 $1,973 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? No 88¢ 96¢ $1,519 $1,657 +$138 (+9%)
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,010 $1,023 +$14 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $990 $992 +$2 (+0%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? No 59¢ 95¢ $600 $963 +$363 (+60%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027? No 91¢ 95¢ $906 $946 +$40 (+4%)
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? No 72¢ 90¢ $644 $806 +$161 (+25%)
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $659 $665 +$5 (+1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? No 92¢ 96¢ $618 $644 +$26 (+4%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No 85¢ 88¢ $588 $612 +$24 (+4%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $516 $519 +$3 (+1%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? No 76¢ 81¢ $437 $472 +$35 (+8%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027? No 92¢ 96¢ $453 $471 +$17 (+4%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? No 92¢ 95¢ $402 $416 +$14 (+4%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $377 $387 +$10 (+3%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $379 $382 +$2 (+1%)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $383 $348 −$35 (-9%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $322 $329 +$7 (+2%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $322 $328 +$6 (+2%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $279 $303 +$25 (+9%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $294 $292 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027? No 91¢ 96¢ $261 $274 +$13 (+5%)
Trump out as President by July 31? No 96¢ 99¢ $229 $236 +$8 (+3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 93¢ 96¢ $201 $207 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Venezuela become 51st state? Jun 26 $56 +$3 +6%
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Jun 25 $548 +$398 +73%
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 20 Jun 25 $1,099 +$105 +10%
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meetin Jun 25 $101 +$18 +18%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 Jun 24 $356 +$8 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 Jun 23 $3 +$6 +200%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 me Jun 23 $3 $0 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $1,273 +$9 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 22 $79 +$10 +12%
Fed abolished before 2027? Jun 22 $90 +$102 +113%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $239 +$72 +30%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J Jun 22 $56 −$4 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 21 $2,557 +$27 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by Jun 20 $2 +$1 +35%
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Jun 19 $133 +$47 +36%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 18 $11,615 +$906 +8%
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? Jun 18 $677 +$22 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $9,940 +$20 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m Jun 17 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) Jun 17 $106 +$2 +2%
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? Jun 17 $428 +$32 +8%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $6,403 +$187 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $327 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 Jun 17 $19 +$7 +40%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the Jun 17 $174 +$23 +13%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 16 $6,134 +$289 +5%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ Jun 16 $2 +$10 +626%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 16 $23 +$1 +6%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $473 +$379 +80%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the Jun 15 $6 +$9 +145%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the Jun 14 $2 +$5 +232%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Jun 12 $507 +$108 +21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $266 +$4 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $609 −$2 -0%
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in May? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 11 $7 +$9 +125%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 11 $7 +$10 +146%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting Jun 10 $688 +$303 +44%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $4,509 +$551 +12%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 07 $392 +$356 +91%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 07 $575 +$22 +4%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 07 $665 +$249 +37%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $0 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $1 +$3 +238%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Jun 06 $2 +$1,029 +43932%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US bank failure by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $295 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $1,975 2h
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 3h
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $37 3h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $586 8h
ECB rate cut in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $168 14h
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 16h
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 16h
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $263 21h
Trump out as President by July 31? BUY No 96¢ $181 23h
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a BUY No 97¢ $5 23h
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a BUY No 97¢ $5 23h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $6 23h
JD Vance out as VP by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $64 24h
Trump out as President by July 31? BUY No 96¢ $48 24h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $398 25h
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY No 85¢ $255 25h
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL Yes $31 26h
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY No 85¢ $10 28h
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $22 32h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $1 33h
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 33h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $1 33h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e BUY Yes $1 34h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $1 34h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $1 37h
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? BUY Yes $2 39h
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? SELL No 91¢ $31 40h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 m BUY Yes 58¢ $14 42h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 m BUY Yes 58¢ $3 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,150.11 · official $21,151.09 (match) · 3500 history records