Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a7c…fb08 crypto 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-5%) realized −$15 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate79%137W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +7.6% -2.6% 60% 40% -5.0%
≤30d 45 +7.6% -2.6% 60% 40% -5.0%
≤90d 61 -15.7% -23.7% 46% 30% -19.4%
all 173 -2.7% -12.0% 79% 14% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 14% -13.0%
10% -20.4% 12% -21.3%
15% -28.1% 10% -28.9%
20% -35.1% 8% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses137 / 36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)173 / 176
History coverage112d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 88¢ 88¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+99%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Down 49¢ 12¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +206%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.33 · official $23.56 (match) · 456 history records