Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8A 0x8a7e…d5de sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$302 (+18%) realized +$306 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$140
14 days+$140
30 days−$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$284
other 23% −$3
world 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +82.7% +65.3% 100% 100% +65.3%
≤30d 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -54.7%
≤90d 12 +18.6% +7.3% 83% 33% +11.1%
all 16 +14.1% +3.3% 88% 25% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 25% +9.8%
10% -6.6% 25% -0.7%
15% -15.6% 25% -10.3%
20% -23.9% 25% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$225 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized+$306
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage168d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $341 $337 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $170 +$140 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $175 −$172 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $281 −$277 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $137 +$217 +158%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 12 $107 +$75 +70%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 04 $298 +$301 +101%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 21 $12 $0 +3%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 21 $12 $0 +3%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 21 $13 $0 +2%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 21 $17 $0 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Apr 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Apr 21 $25 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 02 $20 $0 +2%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bloc Républicain (BR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parlia Jan 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $635 before 2026?? Jan 09 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $347 46m
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $170 7d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $175 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $281 25d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 38¢ $137 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 58¢ $107 43d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 49¢ $298 54d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $12 85d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 91d
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 BUY Yes 99¢ $17 96d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $13 103d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $12 111d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $25 126d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 98¢ $20 140d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 145d
Will Bloc Républicain (BR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parlia BUY No 99¢ $22 159d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $635 before 2026?? BUY No 100¢ $23 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.12 · official $337.12 (match) · 31 history records