Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a7e…0c53 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%12W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$743
7 days−$708
14 days−$981
30 days−$1,078
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$320
politics 5% +$2
world 0% −$5
sports 0% −$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-79.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -93.9% -94.5% 2% 2% -85.9%
≤30d 195 -79.2% -81.2% 5% 4% -71.3%
≤90d 202 -77.1% -79.3% 6% 5% -70.7%
all 202 -77.1% -79.3% 6% 5% -70.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -79.3% 5% -70.7%
10% -81.2% 4% -73.5%
15% -83.1% 4% -76.1%
20% -84.7% 3% -78.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses12 / 190
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)202 / 58
History coverage34d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 84¢ $1 $32 +$30 (+2091%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+166%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 26 $0 −$2 -879%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 26 $11 +$82 +740%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $20 26h
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 26h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 40h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 40h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 41h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 41h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 41h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $38 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.27 · official $39.27 (match) · 239 history records