Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a80…11c5 sports 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1589 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,004 (-2%) realized +$1,799 · open −$2,803
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%53W / 83L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day1589.3pace
Fees−$710est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6,878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$13,985
other 17% +$2,511
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1589 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -32.0% -38.5% 39% 32% -29.4%
≤30d 136 -32.0% -38.5% 39% 32% -29.4%
≤90d 136 -32.0% -38.5% 39% 32% -29.4%
all 136 -32.0% -38.5% 39% 32% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1589.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.5% 32% -29.4%
10% ← realistic here -44.4% 26% -36.2%
15% -49.7% 18% -42.3%
20% -54.7% 11% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$200 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6,878
Realized+$1,799
Unrealized−$2,803
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses53 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$710
Open positions34
Markets (closed)136 / 170
History coverage2d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day1589.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland New Zealand 68¢ 100¢ $2,014 $2,982 +$968 (+48%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs OG 59¢ 94¢ $941 $1,494 +$553 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner 9INE 57¢ 79¢ $402 $559 +$158 (+39%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets New York Mets 50¢ 50¢ $363 $369 +$7 (+2%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 37¢ 6¢ $1,693 $273 −$1,420 (-84%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Grind Back 35¢ 22¢ $329 $211 −$118 (-36%)
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore Singapore 90¢ 99¢ $99 $109 +$10 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A 9INE 50¢ 58¢ $86 $100 +$14 (+16%)
ITF Bakio: Mikel Martinez vs Bernardo Munk Mesa Mikel Martinez 66¢ 74¢ $66 $74 +$7 (+11%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Caty McNally 75¢ 74¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Anastasia Zakharova 52¢ 100¢ $26 $50 +$24 (+91%)
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 74¢ 100¢ $37 $50 +$13 (+35%)
Plovdiv: Gabriele Piraino vs Lorenzo Angelini Lorenzo Angelini 32¢ 42¢ $38 $50 +$12 (+30%)
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Kia Tigers 94¢ 98¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+5%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins LG Twins 89¢ 100¢ $42 $47 +$5 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Betclic Apogee Esports 37¢ 32¢ $48 $41 −$7 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Sashi Esport 59¢ 57¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MODUS 26¢ 36¢ $27 $37 +$10 (+39%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 53¢ 42¢ $44 $35 −$9 (-21%)
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner MODUS 74¢ 100¢ $26 $35 +$9 (+34%)
ITF Kayseri: Vladimir Osminkin vs Aldin Setkic Vladimir Osminkin 58¢ 100¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+71%)
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Hanwha Eagles 64¢ 99¢ $22 $34 +$12 (+54%)
Plovdiv: Gabriele Piraino vs Lorenzo Angelini Gabriele Piraino 71¢ 58¢ $36 $29 −$6 (-18%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner 9INE 44¢ 42¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Targu Mures: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Francesco Passaro 73¢ 70¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $62 −$58 -93%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close Jun 23 $62 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $681 −$340 -50%
ITF Monastir: Kristina Penickova vs Sofia Avataneo Jun 23 $1,100 −$156 -14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $48 +$52 +107%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $41 +$19 +47%
ITF Bergamo: Seydina Andre vs Louis Larue Jun 23 $26 −$24 -93%
ITF Galati: Lavinia Luciano vs Simona Ogescu Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
ITF Tarvisio: Alessandra Mazzola vs Maria Sara Popa Jun 23 $48 +$35 +75%
Plovdiv: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Petr Nesterov Jun 23 $27 +$9 +32%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $243 +$109 +45%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $202 −$117 -58%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $715 +$282 +39%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $45 −$8 -17%
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe Jun 23 $76 +$37 +48%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $19 −$8 -45%
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 23 $28 +$9 +32%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $48 −$47 -98%
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $67 −$18 -27%
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Jun 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Targu Mures: Michele Ribecai vs Niels McDonald Jun 23 $53 −$53 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $2,114 +$1,063 +50%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $1,336 −$244 -18%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $554 +$395 +71%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Yu Ning Tsai Jun 23 $441 −$432 -98%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Yen-Ni Chiang Jun 23 $43 +$7 +16%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Uzbekistan vs Indonesia Jun 23 $12 −$11 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $333 −$180 -54%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $359 −$157 -44%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $931 −$296 -32%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7,002 −$153 -2%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,163 −$745 -64%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 +$29 +98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $213 −$170 -80%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,253 −$909 -73%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $440 −$24 -6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $82 −$80 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $32 +$5 +16%
Valorant: Team Solid vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 23 $104 −$80 -78%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $288 −$223 -78%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 23 $489 −$231 -47%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $489 −$132 -27%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $3,250 −$1,016 -31%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $420 −$413 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $56 −$6 -10%
ITF Taipei: Mio Mushika vs Yuki Naito Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 23 $66 +$15 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 52¢ $53 0m
ITF Bakio: Mikel Martinez vs Bernardo Munk Mesa BUY Mikel Martinez 67¢ $34 0m
ITF Bakio: Mikel Martinez vs Bernardo Munk Mesa BUY Mikel Martinez 66¢ $33 0m
ITF Bakio: Mikel Martinez vs Bernardo Munk Mesa BUY Bernardo Munk Mesa 35¢ $4 1m
ITF Bakio: Mikel Martinez vs Bernardo Munk Mesa BUY Bernardo Munk Mesa 34¢ $5 1m
ITF Monastir: Anna Donnell vs Eva Lopez BUY Anna Donnell 62¢ $8 1m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 35¢ $19 4m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 84¢ $10 9m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 45¢ $16 11m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 40¢ $18 12m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 45¢ $5 12m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 46¢ $21 13m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 81¢ $17 13m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 40¢ $1 17m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 64¢ $8 17m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 64¢ $1 17m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 39¢ $14 18m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 95¢ $95 18m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 90¢ $48 20m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 40¢ $4 21m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 40¢ $10 21m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 80¢ $80 21m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore BUY Singapore 88¢ $9 22m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 69¢ $13 22m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 10¢ $10 23m
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Miguel Damas 60¢ $30 24m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 58¢ $10 24m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 24¢ $2 24m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 24¢ $1 24m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 32¢ $3 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,878.35 · official $6,946.12 (match) · 3161 history records