Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a81…58b0
other · 20 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,044 +654%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,123 · open +$536
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2,576
Realized−$1,123
Unrealized+$536
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 22
Open positions49
Markets (closed)23 / 20
History coverage10d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day337.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 49 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,106
7 days−$1,106
14 days−$1,123
30 days−$1,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $433 $650 +$217 (+50%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Yes $439 $382 −$57 (-13%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $186 $278 +$93 (+50%)
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $127 $190 +$63 (+50%)
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $98 $147 +$49 (+50%)
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $18 $105 +$88 (+500%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 14¢ $65 $104 +$39 (+60%)
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $60 $91 +$30 (+50%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $58 $88 +$29 (+50%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $57 $85 +$28 (+50%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes $43 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $18 $35 +$18 (+100%)
Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $1 $34 +$33 (+3350%)
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $21 $31 +$10 (+50%)
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 14¢ $0 $29 +$29 (+13550%)
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $18 $27 +$9 (+50%)
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $1 $24 +$23 (+2440%)
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-22%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes $10 $21 +$10 (+100%)
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $1 $19 +$19 (+3000%)
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $4 $19 +$15 (+350%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $3 $17 +$14 (+514%)
Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $1 $15 +$14 (+2250%)
Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $14 +$14 (+3300%)
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $26 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will voter turnout be between 85% and 90% in the 2026 Maltese general Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will voter turnout be between 90% and 95% in the 2026 Maltese general Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 12 $634 −$634 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 12 $5 −$10 -190%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Martin Lidegaard be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 12 $1 −$322 -27287%
Will the Slovenian National Party (SNS) be part of the next Government Jun 05 $2 −$2 -102%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% +$164
politics 23% +$355
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 5m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 15m
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 16m
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY Yes $12 18m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 29m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 32m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 35m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 38m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 40m
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 42m
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 55m
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $706 1h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential ele BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-91.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -89.4% -90.4% 5% 0% -97.9%
≤30d 23 -90.6% -91.5% 4% 0% -97.9%
≤90d 23 -90.6% -91.5% 4% 0% -97.9%
all 23 -90.6% -91.5% 4% 0% -97.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover337.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -91.5% 0% -97.9%
10% ← realistic here -92.3% 0% -98.1%
15% -93.1% 0% -98.3%
20% -93.7% 0% -98.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,576.34 · official $2,574.71 (match) · 3500 history records