trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 12 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| Will voter turnout be between 85% and 90% in the 2026 Maltese general | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will voter turnout be between 90% and 95% in the 2026 Maltese general | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t | Jun 12 | $634 | −$634 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$10 | -190% |
| Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after | Jun 12 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will Martin Lidegaard be the next prime minister of Denmark after the | Jun 12 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? | Jun 12 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Trump out as President by May 31? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 12 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the | Jun 12 | $1 | −$322 | -27287% |
| Will the Slovenian National Party (SNS) be part of the next Government | Jun 05 | $2 | −$2 | -102% |
| Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto | Jun 04 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 04 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 19 | -89.4% | -90.4% | 5% | 0% | -97.9% |
| ≤30d | 23 | -90.6% | -91.5% | 4% | 0% | -97.9% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -90.6% | -91.5% | 4% | 0% | -97.9% |
| all | 23 | -90.6% | -91.5% | 4% | 0% | -97.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -91.5% | 0% | -97.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -92.3% | 0% | -98.1% |
| 15% | -93.1% | 0% | -98.3% |
| 20% | -93.7% | 0% | -98.5% |