trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 14 | -39.5% | -45.2% | 36% | 29% | +42.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -45.2% | 29% | +42.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -50.5% | 29% | +28.6% |
| 15% | -55.3% | 29% | +16.2% |
| 20% | -59.6% | 21% | +4.8% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? | Feb 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | Feb 28 | $1,386 | −$1,386 | -100% |
| Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Feb 28 | $11,633 | −$11,633 | -100% |
| Will someone else be inaugurated? | Feb 28 | $2,522 | −$2,522 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $7,616 | +$7,927 | +104% |
| Will Trump mention $boden before July? | Jul 11 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | May 07 | $29,343 | +$20,058 | +68% |
| Will BTC or ETH reach all-time high first? | Mar 05 | $3,000 | +$1,452 | +48% |
| Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Half | Feb 12 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| All 3 University Presidents who testified on antisemitism out by Jan 3 | Feb 12 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| Super Bowl LVIII: Travis Kelce scores first touchdown? | Feb 12 | $1,299 | −$1,299 | -100% |
| Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be yellow/green? | Feb 12 | $2,300 | −$2,300 | -100% |
| Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl? | Feb 12 | $622 | +$63 | +10% |
| Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII? | Feb 12 | $40,549 | +$47,306 | +117% |