Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a85…7905 other 14 markets active 494d ago coverage 388d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$57,491 (+57%) realized +$57,491 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$7,175per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$41,149
crypto 32% +$21,510
politics 21% −$5,166
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 14 -39.5% -45.2% 36% 29% +42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.2% 29% +42.3%
10% ← realistic here -50.5% 29% +28.6%
15% -55.3% 29% +16.2%
20% -59.6% 21% +4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +57% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15,361 vs −$2,146 · ×7.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57,491
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage388d
Avg bet$7,175
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? Feb 28 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? Feb 28 $11,633 −$11,633 -100%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Feb 28 $2,522 −$2,522 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $7,616 +$7,927 +104%
Will Trump mention $boden before July? Jul 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? May 07 $29,343 +$20,058 +68%
Will BTC or ETH reach all-time high first? Mar 05 $3,000 +$1,452 +48%
Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Half Feb 12 $100 −$100 -100%
All 3 University Presidents who testified on antisemitism out by Jan 3 Feb 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Super Bowl LVIII: Travis Kelce scores first touchdown? Feb 12 $1,299 −$1,299 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be yellow/green? Feb 12 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl? Feb 12 $622 +$63 +10%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII? Feb 12 $40,549 +$47,306 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 493d
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,386 597d
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? BUY No 21¢ $1,860 597d
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? BUY No 22¢ $31 597d
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? BUY No 22¢ $140 597d
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? BUY No 21¢ $8,571 597d
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? BUY No 21¢ $49 597d
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? BUY No 21¢ $984 597d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $3 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $0 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $75 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $5 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $3 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $3 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $60 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $48 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $60 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $3 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $3 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $8 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $75 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $56 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $12 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $5 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $1 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $3 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $3 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $0 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $1 599d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY Yes $2 599d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records