Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a85…82dc crypto 267 markets active 19h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$232 (-5%) realized −$232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate48%129W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$34
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$401
other 2% −$20
weather 0% −$5
world 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -14.7% -22.9% 66% 23% -20.5%
≤30d 78 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 33% -21.2%
≤90d 266 -28.2% -35.0% 48% 21% -19.5%
all 266 -28.2% -35.0% 48% 21% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.0% 21% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 12% -27.2%
15% -46.9% 9% -34.2%
20% -52.1% 7% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses129 / 137
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 267
History coverage50d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $39 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $0 +$1 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $0 +$1 +283%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.81 (match) · 1153 history records