Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a88…3dad sports 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,949 (-10%) realized −$1,977 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%88W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$246est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$314
14 days+$261
30 days+$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$631
other 17% −$1,261
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +23.0% +11.2% 62% 62% +44.8%
≤30d 44 +3.5% -6.3% 52% 52% -5.3%
≤90d 201 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 44% -18.4%
all 201 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 44% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 44% -18.4%
10% -31.1% 42% -26.2%
15% -37.8% 41% -33.3%
20% -43.9% 36% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$89 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$1,977
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses88 / 113
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions1
Markets (closed)201 / 202
History coverage88d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 76¢ $94 $122 +$28 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $94 +$116 +123%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $52 −$52 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $32 −$31 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $86 +$98 +114%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball Jun 21 $119 +$86 +72%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $69 +$51 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $59 +$59 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $185 −$183 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $70 −$69 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 Jun 13 $322 −$322 -100%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $280 +$220 +79%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $56 +$20 +37%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $350 +$290 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 08 $512 −$505 -99%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 08 $381 +$287 +75%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $206 +$504 +245%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $191 +$179 +93%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $114 +$76 +67%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $66 +$46 +70%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $114 −$112 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 04 $43 +$57 +133%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Fenerbahce (-7.5) Jun 03 $50 +$50 +101%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 30 $236 −$233 -99%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $204 +$296 +145%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? May 29 $91 −$89 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $371 +$111 +30%
Will Petrojet SC win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $184 −$8 -4%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $70 +$120 +170%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Braden Shick May 27 $101 +$25 +25%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Trabzonspor May 26 $26 +$4 +14%
Morocco vs. Burundi: O/U 3.5 May 26 $420 −$420 -100%
Morocco vs. Burundi: Both Teams to Score May 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 May 26 $452 +$438 +97%
Will IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball end in a draw? May 25 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $191 −$191 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5 May 25 $55 +$50 +90%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $238 −$238 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $118 +$118 +100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 18 $200 −$197 -99%
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. Wuerzburg May 18 $139 +$106 +76%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 May 17 $2 +$4 +146%
Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 May 17 $143 −$141 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $96 56m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $210 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $94 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $52 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $32 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $86 2d
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball SELL Monaco 100¢ $205 2d
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball BUY Monaco 58¢ $119 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $69 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $59 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $185 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $22 8d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $70 10d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 50¢ $42 10d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 50¢ $50 10d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 50¢ $100 10d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 50¢ $100 10d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 10d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $14 12d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $12 12d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 12d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $28 12d
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY Panathinaikos 56¢ $280 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $145 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $117 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $88 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Under 51¢ $145 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.40 · official $122.40 (match) · 762 history records