Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8a89…9783 crypto 613 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,420 (-4%) realized −$1,379 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate73%445W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$302
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$260
world 21% −$907
other 3% −$188
politics 3% −$170
sports 2% −$125
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 33 -15.8% -23.8% 48% 30% -17.3%
≤90d 573 -4.8% -13.9% 72% 19% -15.7%
all 607 -3.8% -13.0% 73% 20% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 20% -13.2%
10% -21.3% 9% -21.5%
15% -28.9% 4% -29.1%
20% -35.9% 2% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$28 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$1,379
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses445 / 162
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions6
Markets (closed)607 / 613
History coverage99d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 607 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 79¢ 68¢ $150 $129 −$21 (-14%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? Yes 35¢ 6¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-84%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 48¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 20¢ 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +5%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $131 −$7 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 16 $41 +$3 +7%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 14 $79 −$39 -49%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $145 −$60 -42%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $55 −$4 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $90 +$14 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $517 −$94 -18%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $346 −$32 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $70 +$2 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$3 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 08 $208 −$117 -56%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $72 −$19 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 07 $58 +$30 +52%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $50 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $25 +$7 +28%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -20%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 07 $95 +$14 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $258 +$118 +46%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Jun 05 $73 −$16 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $82 +$41 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $153 +$26 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $55 +$4 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $10 +$3 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $25 +$5 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $35 −$4 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $94 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $181 +$4 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $50 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 20 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 20 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 20 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 20 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 20 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $9 −$6 -73%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 19 $680 −$32 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $50 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $50 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $31 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $125 6d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 34¢ $10 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 77¢ $33 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 31¢ $10 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 8d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 58¢ $18 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 76¢ $20 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 45¢ $12 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $100 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 21¢ $44 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $120 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.54 · official $237.54 (match) · 2027 history records