Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a8d…d9ea crypto 1677 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate79%1322W / 355L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$19
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 395 -2.8% -12.1% 75% 75% -12.6%
≤30d 977 -2.5% -11.8% 78% 63% -12.1%
≤90d 1677 -3.0% -12.2% 79% 51% -12.4%
all 1677 -3.0% -12.2% 79% 51% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 51% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 34% -20.8%
15% -28.3% 12% -28.4%
20% -35.3% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1322 / 355
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1677 / 1677
History coverage72d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1677 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records