Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a8e…acf7 crypto 615 markets active 5d ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%292W / 323L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$141
other 6% +$3
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -10.9% -19.4% 47% 47% -25.1%
≤30d 174 -18.9% -26.6% 44% 41% -15.9%
≤90d 225 -18.0% -25.8% 46% 41% -14.6%
all 615 -8.1% -16.8% 47% 42% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 42% -14.7%
10% -24.8% 35% -22.9%
15% -32.0% 32% -30.4%
20% -38.7% 22% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses292 / 323
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)615 / 615
History coverage221d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 615 Trades
no open positions (137 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$10 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 23 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 23 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 23 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 23 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 23 $14 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 23 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 23 $14 −$7 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 23 $14 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 23 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 23 $17 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 23 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 23 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 23 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 23 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 23 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 23 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 23 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 23 $7 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 23 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 23 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 23 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 23 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 23 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 23 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 23 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 23 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 23 $4 +$5 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2201 history records