Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8a8f…56e5 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$416 (+46%) realized +$125 · open +$291
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$432
sports 35% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 40% +14.4%
≤30d 10 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 40% +14.4%
≤90d 10 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 40% +14.4%
all 10 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 40% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 40% +14.4%
10% -36.3% 40% +3.4%
15% -42.5% 40% -6.6%
20% -48.1% 40% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$33 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$633
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$291
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 21¢ $100 $392 +$292 (+292%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $70 $69 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 +$97 +93%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $78 +$80 +102%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $32 −$30 -95%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -95%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $52 +$27 +52%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $105 +$137 +131%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.40 · official $633.47 (match) · 23 history records