Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a90…9e60 world 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$3
other 28% −$2
politics 19% $0
sports 11% −$2
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -0.3% -9.8% 19% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.6%
all 71 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage318d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $84 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $86 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $86 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $57 +$2 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $91 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $355 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $196 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $175 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $87 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $163 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $188 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $87 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $157 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $91 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $85 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $93 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $93 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $85 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $90 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $86 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $60 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $589 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $130 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $589 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $162 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $588 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $648 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -40%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 12 $34 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $6 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $82 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $82 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $10 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $74 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $84 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $75 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $11 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $50 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $50 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $65 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $21 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $73 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $59 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $51 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $92 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $93 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $93 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $91 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $91 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $91 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $92 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $92 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $92 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $92 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.56 · official $81.56 (match) · 281 history records