Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a90…7e68 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$399 (-1%) realized +$49 · open −$448
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,789per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$195est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$11,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days+$1,226
14 days−$582
30 days−$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$1,511
other 38% +$481
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +39.3% +26.1% 78% 78% -1.1%
≤30d 12 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 58% -13.0%
≤90d 12 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 58% -13.0%
all 12 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 58% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 58% -13.0%
10% -14.5% 50% -21.3%
15% -22.8% 50% -28.9%
20% -30.3% 42% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$804 vs −$1,242 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$11,223
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$448
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,789
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $9,669 $9,727 +$58 (+1%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 60¢ 60¢ $918 $925 +$8 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs The Huns Esports 57¢ 30¢ $1,085 $571 −$514 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $780 −$118 -15%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $1,906 +$1,454 +76%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $2,039 +$1,621 +80%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,005 +$975 +97%
Valorant: REBORN vs Ghools Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Jun 22 $890 +$190 +21%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $1,119 +$475 +42%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $619 +$491 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $4,325 −$4,284 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $577 +$423 +73%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $326 −$323 -99%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $773 −$764 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $729 −$721 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 57¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 57¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 57¢ $535 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 57¢ $550 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $163 24h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $166 25h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $600 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $9,718 27h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick SELL largadosypelados 50¢ $662 41h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 58¢ $340 44h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 57¢ $64 44h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 57¢ $284 44h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 56¢ $93 44h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 56¢ $635 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $564 3d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 56¢ $1,271 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 55¢ $106 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 54¢ $221 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 54¢ $148 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $247 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 58¢ $722 3d
Valorant: REBORN vs Ghools Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D BUY REBORN 82¢ $25 4d
Valorant: REBORN vs Ghools Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D BUY REBORN 82¢ $866 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,005 4d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 68¢ $238 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $2,163 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $2,163 5d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 70¢ $881 5d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 55¢ $619 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,223.28 · official $11,223.28 (match) · 47 history records