trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +153.2% | +129.1% | 38% | 8% | -10.3% |
| all | 25 | +80.2% | +63.0% | 52% | 4% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +63.0% | 4% | -9.9% |
| 10% | +47.4% | 4% | -18.6% |
| 15% | +33.2% | 4% | -26.4% |
| 20% | +20.1% | 4% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 24 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 26 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 25 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $31 | $0 | +2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $18 | −$4 | -20% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 23 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 21 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 21 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? | Mar 29 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 28 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 26 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? | Mar 25 | $18 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Mar 23 | $17 | $0 | -3% |
| Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? | Mar 21 | $17 | +$1 | +5% |
| Nicholls State vs. Lamar | Mar 02 | $17 | $0 | +0% |