Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a91…92b5 crypto 1676 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$430 (-141%) realized −$430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%133W / 1542L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day100.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$13
14 days−$12
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-78.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 +6.2% -3.9% 68% 68% -3.1%
≤30d 1675 -75.9% -78.2% 8% 8% -32.0%
≤90d 1675 -75.9% -78.2% 8% 8% -32.0%
all 1675 -75.9% -78.2% 8% 8% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.2% 8% -32.0%
10% ← realistic here -80.3% 8% -38.5%
15% -82.2% 8% -44.5%
20% -83.9% 7% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×9.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses133 / 1542
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1675 / 1676
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day100.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1675 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 67¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.31 · official $0.35 (match) · 3500 history records