Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8a92…8586 crypto 1300 markets active 3d ago coverage 154d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,058 (+208%) realized +$8,062 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%380W / 919L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$122
14 days+$1,004
30 days+$1,041
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$2,786
sports 29% +$1,551
crypto 11% −$56
politics 5% +$1,322
finance 5% −$96
culture 4% +$776
world 3% +$14
tech 3% +$1,187
economics 2% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -87.5% -88.7% 0% 0% -99.3%
≤30d 49 +194.1% +166.1% 45% 45% +115.3%
≤90d 237 +269.9% +234.7% 71% 71% +182.5%
all 1299 +55.5% +40.7% 29% 29% +125.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.7% 29% +125.7%
10% +27.3% 28% +104.1%
15% +15.0% 27% +84.4%
20% +3.7% 26% +66.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +284% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +198% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +167% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$2 · ×13.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.47 per $1 lost it wins $5.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$8,062
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses380 / 919
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1299 / 1300
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 5–10%? No 24¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $7 −$8 -118%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Caleb Yirenkyi: 1+ goals Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 +$74 +532%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers winning after 5 innings? Jun 17 $14 +$76 +540%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +3233%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +815%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $14 +$68 +483%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $7 +$16 +225%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $28 +$760 +2715%
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $7 +$26 +371%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $14 +$70 +497%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $21 +$213 +1017%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $7 +$19 +275%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Northern Ireland vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 08 $1 +$3 +252%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $7 +$15 +218%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 08 $2 +$5 +258%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $0 +$1 +265%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC leading at halftime? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $7 +$45 +650%
Slovakia leading at halftime? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.2M in April? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Will San Diego Wave FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $7 +$19 +276%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $450-$460 on the final day of trading o May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $440-$450 on the final day of trading o May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Orlando Pride 2 - 0 Bay FC? May 30 $1 +$3 +221%
Exact Score: Orlando Pride 3 - 1 Bay FC? May 30 $1 +$3 +221%
Exact Score: Orlando Pride 2 - 2 Bay FC? May 29 $1 +$3 +221%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 2.5 May 28 $7 +$17 +237%
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $7 +$38 +538%
Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 0.5 May 26 $5 +$27 +597%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria $4 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria $1 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria $3 2d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY No $0 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $3 2d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY No 15¢ $7 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $4 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $7 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up $7 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up $7 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up $7 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 28¢ $7 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 7d
Caleb Yirenkyi: 1+ goals BUY No 28¢ $7 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $7 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under $7 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under $7 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $2 7d
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY No $1 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $3 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $7 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.66 (match) · 3500 history records