Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a97…3b04 sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,376 (+13%) realized +$3,256 · open +$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%32W / 32L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3,126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$896
7 days+$4,474
14 days+$3,425
30 days+$3,410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$657
other 28% +$345
tech 9% +$3,031
crypto 5% +$197
finance 4% +$243
politics 4% +$14
economics 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +27.6% +15.4% 67% 56% +18.3%
≤30d 46 +13.1% +2.4% 54% 43% +5.1%
≤90d 62 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 42% +2.3%
all 64 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 42% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 42% +2.5%
10% -16.6% 28% -7.3%
15% -24.6% 20% -16.3%
20% -32.0% 16% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$94 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$3,126
Realized+$3,256
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses32 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions10
Markets (closed)64 / 74
History coverage166d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,000 $1,016 +$16 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 62¢ 74¢ $650 $778 +$128 (+20%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $650 $646 −$4 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 17¢ 19¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $215 $188 −$27 (-12%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? No 33¢ 31¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $70 $93 +$23 (+33%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 58¢ 46¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $804 +$140 +17%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $82 −$28 -35%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $141 +$50 +35%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $504 +$162 +32%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $111 −$82 -74%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $302 +$489 +162%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $503 −$500 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $905 +$178 +20%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $1,857 +$276 +15%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 +$41 +303%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $81 −$42 -52%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 +$69 +23%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$8 -23%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $203 +$251 +124%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $806 +$146 +18%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $105 −$5 -5%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 17 $107 +$16 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,103 +$128 +12%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$47 -92%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $732 +$57 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $407 +$21 +5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $210 +$1,063 +505%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $207 +$148 +72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $561 +$324 +58%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $316 −$310 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $257 −$252 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $917 +$1,559 +170%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $58 +$18 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $191 +$44 +23%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $201 +$8 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $1,265 +$496 +39%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $90 −$87 -96%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $966 −$111 -12%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $572 −$74 -13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,607 −$61 -4%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Mboko/Williams Jun 11 $157 −$6 -4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $277 −$117 -42%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2,479 −$592 -24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $44 −$43 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $289 +$29 +10%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $464 −$281 -61%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $21 −$21 -97%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 24 $14 +$8 +56%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $652 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $118 14h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $54 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 88¢ $301 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 16h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 92¢ $20 17h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 57¢ $20 17h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 62¢ $20 17h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 52¢ $20 17h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 85¢ $50 18h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 15¢ $5 18h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 30¢ $10 18h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $665 20h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $29 20h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $111 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $504 24h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 25h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,034 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 38¢ $119 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $667 37h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 17¢ $208 38h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,083 39h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $54 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 39h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,125.93 · official $3,125.93 (match) · 214 history records