Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a98…1b92
world · 81 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$14,816 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,697 · open +$1,584
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45,676
Realized+$6,697
Unrealized+$1,584
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions111
Markets (closed)84 / 81
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2,448
Trades / day3497.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 111 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,697
7 days+$6,697
14 days+$6,697
30 days+$6,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $2,539 $2,997 +$458 (+18%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,700 $2,715 +$15 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $1,969 $2,059 +$90 (+5%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,974 $1,987 +$12 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 81¢ 88¢ $1,620 $1,770 +$150 (+9%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,683 $1,680 −$3 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $1,704 $1,677 −$26 (-2%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $1,563 $1,623 +$60 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $1,547 $1,577 +$30 (+2%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 41¢ 80¢ $745 $1,470 +$725 (+97%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $1,471 $1,432 −$39 (-3%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 77¢ 66¢ $1,494 $1,291 −$204 (-14%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $1,109 $1,242 +$133 (+12%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 56¢ 73¢ $917 $1,201 +$284 (+31%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 29¢ 55¢ $578 $1,113 +$535 (+93%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $1,037 $1,060 +$24 (+2%)
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $969 $993 +$24 (+2%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $938 $961 +$23 (+2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 58¢ 78¢ $619 $831 +$212 (+34%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $785 $787 +$2 (+0%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $707 $698 −$9 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 82¢ 87¢ $656 $696 +$40 (+6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $717 $691 −$26 (-4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $764 $584 −$181 (-24%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $484 $570 +$85 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$3 -429%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 12 $6 −$319 -5589%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -102%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $313 −$1,067 -340%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$183 +1364%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? Jun 12 $12 −$701 -5714%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 12 $17 −$15 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -2729%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 12 $19 −$126 -651%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $686 −$2,883 -420%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 12 $21 −$29 -138%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 12 $5 −$8 -176%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 12 $315 −$316 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 12 $30 −$691 -2302%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? Jun 12 $393 −$771 -196%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $98 −$301 -307%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$42 -2145%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 12 $22 −$30 -134%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? Jun 12 $21 −$1,072 -5012%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $11 −$132 -1203%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? Jun 12 $0 +$32 +11406%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? Jun 12 $19 +$82 +435%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $85 +$11 +13%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$990 -12682%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $17 +$679 +3897%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$42 -212%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 12 $42 −$111 -267%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 12 $3 −$1,082 -35444%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $64 −$43 -68%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 12 $369 −$405 -110%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $18 +$194 +1081%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $4 −$961 -27284%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15? Jun 12 $69 −$71 -102%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $9 −$305 -3485%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 12 $42 −$20 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 12 $6 −$162 -2693%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$8 -169%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11,642 +$63 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $9,227 +$428 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $749 +$1,466 +196%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $25,712 −$300 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 88% +$18,633
other 10% +$742
politics 1% +$424
finance 0% $0
weather 0% +$134
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $35 0m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $578 0m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $239 0m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 0m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 61¢ $36 1m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $43 1m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 64¢ $276 1m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 65¢ $234 1m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $154 1m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 66¢ $16 1m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 67¢ $67 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $32 1m
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $3 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 69¢ $429 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $4 2m
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 2m
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $203 2m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $7 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $563 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $340 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $39 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,345 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $383 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $10 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $10 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $288 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+111.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +133.9% +111.6% 37% 29% +0.9%
≤30d 84 +133.9% +111.6% 37% 29% +0.9%
≤90d 84 +133.9% +111.6% 37% 29% +0.9%
all 84 +133.9% +111.6% 37% 29% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3497.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +111.6% 29% +0.9%
10% +91.4% 24% -8.8%
15% ← realistic here +72.9% 21% -17.6%
20% +55.9% 20% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,676.19 · official $45,726.03 (match) · 3500 history records