Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

8A 0x8a9d…de77 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$121 (+14%) realized +$134 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate57%13W / 10L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-2.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+8.0%	-2.3%	57%	52%	+2.5%
≤30d	23	+8.0%	-2.3%	57%	52%	+2.5%
≤90d	23	+8.0%	-2.3%	57%	52%	+2.5%
all	23	+8.0%	-2.3%	57%	52%	+2.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.3%	52%	+2.5%
10%	-11.6%	48%	-7.4%
15%	-20.2%	48%	-16.3%
20%	-28.0%	43%	-24.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +17% → late -0% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$11

Realized+$134

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses13 / 10

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage6d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	6¢	3¢	$20	$11	−$9 (-46%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$4	$0	−$4 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$98	+$5	+5%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$48	−$47	-98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$40	+$8	+19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$92	+$48	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-91%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$36	−$35	-98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$91	+$40	+44%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$34	+$57	+171%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$101	−$68	-67%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$14	−$14	-97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$51	+$53	+105%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$58	+57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$41	−$36	-89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 12	$3	+$4	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 12	$1	+$2	+152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 11	$3	+$3	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 11	$3	+$5	+159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5	Jun 11	$51	+$33	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$5	+98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	19m
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5	SELL Over	99¢	$103	1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5	BUY Over	94¢	$98	1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	45¢	$48	3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	SELL Yes	67¢	$47	15h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	55¢	$40	15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$140	19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	65¢	$92	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	SELL Up	3¢	$0	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$3	19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	34¢	$36	20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	69¢	$91	23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	86¢	$91	2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$34	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	22¢	$34	2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	1¢	$1	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	9¢	$13	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5	BUY Over	48¢	$51	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	2¢	$3	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$41	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$3	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$3	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$3	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$1	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.88 · official $10.88 (match) · 43 history records