Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a9d…69fb sports 456 markets active 2h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,560 (-5%) realized −$2,560 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%140W / 316L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$81
14 days−$151
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$2,674
world 25% +$1,773
other 13% −$1,688
crypto 4% −$582
politics 2% +$852
tech 2% −$506
economics 1% −$134
finance 1% −$64
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -24.6% -31.8% 33% 0% -32.3%
≤30d 46 -10.8% -19.3% 33% 28% -22.8%
≤90d 107 -23.2% -30.6% 26% 23% -29.3%
all 456 -22.6% -29.9% 31% 26% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 26% -14.8%
10% -36.6% 23% -22.9%
15% -42.8% 20% -30.4%
20% -48.4% 18% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$61 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,560
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses140 / 316
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)456 / 456
History coverage327d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 456 Trades
no open positions (106 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $76 −$51 -67%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jun 20 $218 −$32 -15%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$36 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 14 $8 −$2 -20%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $50 −$15 -31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 14 $86 −$45 -52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $91 +$93 +102%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $32 +$3 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$35 +170%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$20 +64%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$26 +103%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $115 −$113 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $48 +$167 +348%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$80 +437%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $28 −$28 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$25 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $23 +$40 +173%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 11 $21 −$1 -4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $53 −$52 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $25 +$27 +107%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $9 +$8 +85%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $8 +$10 +121%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $18 −$8 -44%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $53 −$53 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $15 +$25 +162%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $13 +$16 +118%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner May 27 $26 −$26 -99%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner May 27 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 08 $13 −$1 -7%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 08 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 08 $13 +$10 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 3d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 3d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $37 3d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 8d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $39 8d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $39 8d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 8d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 8d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 31¢ $15 8d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $37 8d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 25¢ $15 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 7¢ $7 9d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 42¢ $40 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $8 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $2 9d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $41 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $184 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 54¢ $56 9d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $56 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $35 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $35 9d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 47¢ $29 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $46 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $55 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1172 history records