Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a9f…e03b world 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$639 (-1%) realized −$638 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate32%34W / 72L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$514per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$165
14 days+$177
30 days−$6,948
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$893
sports 5% +$960
politics 3% −$280
crypto 3% −$361
other 1% +$54
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -17.4% -25.2% 67% 33% -5.2%
≤30d 46 -52.8% -57.3% 17% 11% -32.8%
≤90d 77 -38.0% -43.9% 21% 10% -21.4%
all 106 -18.7% -26.5% 32% 19% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 19% -9.1%
10% -33.5% 15% -17.8%
15% -39.9% 14% -25.7%
20% -45.8% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$400 vs −$196 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$638
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses34 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions4
Markets (closed)106 / 110
History coverage115d
Avg bet$514
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,649 −$8 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3,157 +$118 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $252 +$54 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 10 $169 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 10 $389 +$11 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $208 −$208 -100%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 03 $32 −$7 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4,773 −$1,008 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $600 −$57 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $300 +$389 +130%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 29 $1,248 −$818 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 28 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 28 $120 −$31 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 28 $111 −$10 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $1,002 +$817 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $3,044 +$470 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 24 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 24 $20 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 24 $30 −$18 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 24 $16 −$10 -64%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? May 24 $352 −$311 -88%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score May 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 24 $15 −$10 -64%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? May 24 $168 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? May 24 $87 −$86 -98%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? May 24 $324 −$64 -20%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? May 24 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 14? May 24 $78 −$78 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 3? May 24 $207 −$207 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 24 $77 −$77 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 24 $381 −$381 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? May 24 $5,764 −$4,871 -84%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $250 −$59 -24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $500 −$136 -27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $1,297 −$73 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $60 −$14 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $2,179 +$17 +1%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $981 +$1,404 +143%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $272 −$245 -90%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $90 −$13 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $414 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $421 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $384 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $500 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $307 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $499 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $564 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $62 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $493 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $60 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $500 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 68¢ $170 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 52¢ $399 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $667 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $667 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 42¢ $104 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 52¢ $129 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 52¢ $153 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $169 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 52¢ $3 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,225 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $319 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.31 · official $159.31 (match) · 664 history records