Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8aa2…5a0b
weather · 299 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$21,002 -60%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20,904 · open +$79
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,172
Realized−$20,904
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses179 / 450
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)629 / 299
History coverage16d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day205.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 17 History 629 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22,788
7 days−$21,215
14 days−$21,927
30 days−$20,904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 53¢ 66¢ $299 $378 +$79 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $180 $171 −$9 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 50¢ 57¢ $129 $150 +$20 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 71¢ 93¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 76¢ 78¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 4¢ 2¢ $94 $55 −$39 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 53¢ 54¢ $53 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 71¢ 84¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+18%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $36 $18 −$17 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 84¢ 79¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 48¢ 56¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 34¢ 49¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 45¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 81¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 83¢ 76¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 72¢ 69¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 67¢ 51¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 52¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 5? No 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15? No 39¢ 0¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 5? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15? Jun 12 $163 −$163 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 12 $395 −$395 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12 Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 3? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 29? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 18? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 7? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 22 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 22 Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 15 Jun 12 $209 −$209 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on May 16? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 11? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 6? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 6? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 12 $232 −$232 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 8? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 1? Jun 12 $599 −$599 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 7? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 14 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ap Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 7? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 6? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 3? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 18 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 5? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 7? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 3? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ap Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 16? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 13 Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 24? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 10 Jun 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$2,311
tech 1% −$56
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 55¢ $28 10m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 52¢ $14 27m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 50¢ $12 27m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $3 31m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $3 38m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 44¢ $4 41m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $3 51m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $9 58m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 50¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 50¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 50¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 49¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 48¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 46¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 50¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 50¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 48¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $23 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 491 -69.7% -72.6% 19% 17% -58.3%
≤30d 629 -49.4% -54.2% 28% 26% -43.0%
≤90d 629 -49.4% -54.2% 28% 26% -43.0%
all 629 -49.4% -54.2% 28% 26% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover205.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.2% 26% -43.0%
10% ← realistic here -58.6% 18% -48.4%
15% -62.6% 13% -53.4%
20% -66.3% 9% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,171.80 · official $1,172.76 (match) · 3500 history records