Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:15:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8aa6…2b6f politics 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%24W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$22
politics 26% −$8
other 24% −$15
crypto 7% −$2
economics 5% $0
world 5% −$2
culture 5% +$4
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 48 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 159 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses24 / 135
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage165d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $118 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 14 $82 $0 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $176 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $212 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 08 $57 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $240 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 01 $234 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $320 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $453 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $339 −$2 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $317 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $357 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 28 $658 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 27 $162 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $233 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $56 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $56 6h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 93¢ $65 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $66 13d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $50 25d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $50 26d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 38d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $54 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL No 98¢ $38 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 98¢ $38 69d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $68 69d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $68 69d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $60 69d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $60 70d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $47 70d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $47 70d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $46 70d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $46 70d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $42 70d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $42 71d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 71d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 71d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $53 71d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $53 71d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 93¢ $59 71d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 93¢ $59 71d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $46 71d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $46 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL No 96¢ $43 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 97¢ $43 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 686 history records