Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8aaa…d209 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$36
sports 23% −$19
culture 7% −$10
politics 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$9
economics 5% −$5
world 3% −$3
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage133d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $557 −$2 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $470 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $621 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $429 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $577 −$2 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $289 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $214 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $264 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $640 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $747 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $639 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 3h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 4h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 6h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 10h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 11h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 20h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 22h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 23h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 44h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 3d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 3d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 4d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $62 4d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $62 4d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 4d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1360 history records