Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8aaa…1ce7 other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$138 (+5%) realized +$118 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$570
other 32% −$63
sports 23% −$358
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-55.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -49.2% -54.0% 18% 14% -16.9%
≤30d 44 -49.2% -54.0% 18% 14% -16.9%
≤90d 44 -49.2% -54.0% 18% 14% -16.9%
all 48 -50.4% -55.1% 19% 15% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.1% 15% -5.0%
10% -59.4% 15% -14.1%
15% -63.3% 12% -22.4%
20% -66.9% 8% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$16 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 39
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)48 / 55
History coverage230d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+73%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $5 −$3 -51%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $74 +$27 +37%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $501 +$48 +10%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $4 +$32 +767%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$12 +116%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$26 +170%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$10 -50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $74 −$32 -44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$7 -17%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $37 +$13 +35%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $95 −$4 -4%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 +$6 +7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,295 +$577 +44%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $229 −$229 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 22m
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 10¢ $3 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 22h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 97¢ $101 22h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 78¢ $23 23h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 78¢ $1 23h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 78¢ $30 23h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $20 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $550 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 23h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 98¢ $36 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.90 · official $93.81 (match) · 92 history records