Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8aac…0e7a other 431 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 152d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,550 (-11%) realized −$9,693 · open −$3,857
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%182W / 238L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$15,066now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$5,451
other 22% −$3,033
world 17% +$1,973
culture 12% +$287
crypto 11% −$581
economics 5% +$561
sports 4% +$1,166
tech 4% −$357
finance 1% −$740
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.2% +33.2% 100% 100% +33.2%
≤30d 1 +47.2% +33.2% 100% 100% +33.2%
≤90d 18 +32.3% +19.7% 50% 33% +0.4%
all 420 +14.3% +3.4% 43% 29% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 29% -11.6%
10% -6.5% 23% -20.1%
15% -15.5% 18% -27.8%
20% -23.8% 15% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +37% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$66 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$15,066
Realized−$9,693
Unrealized−$3,857
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses182 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)420 / 431
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$282
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 75¢ $7,456 $11,244 +$3,788 (+51%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 25¢ $7,456 $3,668 −$3,788 (-51%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 71¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? No 96¢ 95¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? No 93¢ 94¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 70¢ 34¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-51%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Yes 67¢ 15¢ $44 $10 −$34 (-78%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 79¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-94%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? Yes 24¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 13 $12 +$5 +47%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $142 +$116 +82%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? Apr 13 $319 +$598 +187%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $44 +$108 +245%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 04 $3 +$7 +192%
Will NewJeans perform again by March 31? Apr 04 $301 +$15 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Apr 04 $97 +$10 +10%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $36 −$4 -12%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $87 −$50 -58%
Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026? Apr 04 $44 −$41 -94%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $90 −$46 -51%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 04 $741 −$573 -77%
Will Perena launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $235 −$174 -74%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 23 $113 +$317 +280%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meet Mar 23 $465 +$38 +8%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $9 −$6 -62%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $32 −$26 -81%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $801 −$8 -1%
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $62 −$47 -76%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad Mar 16 $1,454 +$169 +12%
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $168 −$7 -4%
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1,299 +$530 +41%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1,493 −$114 -8%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 16 $245 −$55 -23%
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $117 −$107 -92%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $324 +$585 +180%
Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $55 +$11 +20%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 10 $277 +$154 +56%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 07 $46 −$14 -31%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 07 $621 −$79 -13%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Mar 07 $76 −$15 -19%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 07 $368 −$2 -0%
Will Weibo Gaming win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs? Mar 07 $0 $0 -46%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 07 $214 −$60 -28%
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs? Mar 07 $118 +$40 +34%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 07 $2,408 −$42 -2%
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 07 $59 +$5 +8%
Will Sinners win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 07 $124 +$14 +11%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 06 $389 −$3 -1%
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th A Mar 06 $1 $0 -5%
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 3 Mar 06 $9 +$15 +162%
Will Team Liquid win Masters Santiago 2026? Mar 06 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 06 $48 −$10 -21%
Megaquake by March 31? Mar 05 $71 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3m
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 93¢ $21 24m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 79¢ $6 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 12h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 12h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 12h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $22 82d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $41 84d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 93d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 94d
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 94d
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award SELL Yes 51¢ $93 97d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 97d
Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 97d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad SELL No 44¢ $20 98d
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa SELL No 71¢ $57 98d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad SELL No 40¢ $54 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,065.79 · official $15,065.79 (match) · 3500 history records