Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8aad…afc5 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+9%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate93%25W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$4
other 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.5% +1.8% 93% 37% -9.4%
≤30d 27 +12.5% +1.8% 93% 37% -9.4%
≤90d 27 +12.5% +1.8% 93% 37% -9.4%
all 27 +12.5% +1.8% 93% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 37% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 22% -18.1%
15% -16.9% 19% -26.0%
20% -25.0% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$71 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses25 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$17 +68%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$5 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $90 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $91 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $48 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $45 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $23 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records