Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ab0…50e3 sports 603 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$657 (-1%) realized −$651 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%548W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$337
7 days−$446
14 days−$1,018
30 days−$829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$841
other 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 583 -1.9% -11.2% 91% 3% -10.8%
≤90d 599 -0.7% -10.1% 91% 5% -10.8%
all 599 -0.7% -10.1% 91% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 5% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 2% -19.3%
15% -26.6% 1% -27.1%
20% -33.8% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$61 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized−$651
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses548 / 51
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions4
Markets (closed)599 / 603
History coverage32d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 599 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 95¢ 100¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+5%)
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Alina Charaeva 97¢ 98¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 95¢ 88¢ $85 $79 −$6 (-7%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 95¢ 86¢ $85 $76 −$8 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $85 +$3 +4%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $150 +$6 +4%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $150 +$5 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $150 +$8 +5%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $150 +$7 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $150 +$8 +5%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $150 +$5 +3%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $150 +$6 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $150 +$11 +7%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $150 +$8 +5%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $150 +$8 +5%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $150 +$8 +5%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $150 +$8 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $200 +$5 +3%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $150 +$5 +3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $150 +$6 +4%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $150 +$6 +4%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $150 +$5 +3%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $150 +$8 +5%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $150 +$5 +3%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $150 +$6 +4%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $150 +$6 +4%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $150 +$5 +3%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $117 +$4 +3%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $150 +$6 +4%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $150 +$7 +5%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $150 +$8 +5%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $150 +$8 +5%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $150 +$5 +3%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $150 +$7 +5%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $150 +$5 +3%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $150 +$5 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $150 +$8 +5%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $150 +$8 +5%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $150 +$8 +5%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Jun 16 $150 +$8 +5%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $150 +$8 +5%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $150 +$5 +3%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $150 +$6 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $150 +$9 +6%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $150 +$6 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $150 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 95¢ $85 10m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 95¢ $85 22m
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 97¢ $85 34m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 96¢ $85 46m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 96¢ $150 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 97¢ $150 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 97¢ $150 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 96¢ $150 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 95¢ $150 1h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 96¢ $150 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 95¢ $150 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 97¢ $150 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 93¢ $150 2h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 95¢ $150 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 95¢ $150 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 95¢ $150 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 95¢ $150 3h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 95¢ $150 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 97¢ $200 11h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 97¢ $150 12h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 98¢ $200 13h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 98¢ $200 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 98¢ $200 14h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $200 14h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 96¢ $150 15h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 96¢ $150 17h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 97¢ $150 18h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 95¢ $150 18h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 96¢ $150 19h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 95¢ $150 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.41 · official $399.41 (match) · 1234 history records