Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ab2…4250 weather 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%123W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% −$7
other 17% +$1
crypto 12% $0
politics 8% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 52 -0.0% -9.6% 35% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 248 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses123 / 136
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage305d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Derek Tran advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Catherine Fleming Bruce be the Democratic nominee for Senate in N Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 6? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 3? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 3? Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Don Primus be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 31? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 25-31? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Martinelli have the most goal contributions in the 2025-2 May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 30? May 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 28? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 29? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 29? May 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 28? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 29? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 28? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Derek Tran advance from the CA-45 primary election? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $15 17d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $7 18d
Will Catherine Fleming Bruce be the Democratic nominee for Senate in N SELL No 100¢ $7 18d
Will Catherine Fleming Bruce be the Democratic nominee for Senate in N BUY No 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $7 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $6 20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $18 20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $18 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $6 21d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $9 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $7 23d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 23d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 23d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $12 23d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $9 23d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June SELL No 100¢ $9 24d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $9 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $6 24d
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $14 24d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June BUY No 100¢ $9 24d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary SELL No 100¢ $12 25d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 1? SELL No 100¢ $17 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.33 · official $32.33 (match) · 598 history records