Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

8A 0x8ab3…afb7 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,840 (-32%) realized −$1,844 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip

Net edge-75%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,423per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-72.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-69.4%	-72.4%	0%	0%	-44.8%
≤30d	2	-69.4%	-72.4%	0%	0%	-44.8%
≤90d	2	-69.4%	-72.4%	0%	0%	-44.8%
all	2	-69.4%	-72.4%	0%	0%	-44.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-72.4%	0%	-44.8%
10% ← realistic here	-75.0%	0%	-50.1%
15%	-77.4%	0%	-54.9%
20%	-79.6%	0%	-59.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -39% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -69% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$993 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$604

Realized−$1,844

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage6d

Avg bet$1,423

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$300	$303	+$2 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	No	85¢	86¢	$300	$302	+$2 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5,079	−$1,975	-39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	85¢	$301	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$303	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	30¢	$3,103	5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	45¢	$4,083	5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	59¢	$995	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	5¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.34 · official $604.34 (match) · 6 history records