trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +245.7% | +212.7% | 50% | 50% | +327.7% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -21.6% | -29.0% | 27% | 27% | +13.1% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -37.2% | -43.2% | 20% | 20% | +1.9% |
| all | 26 | -26.2% | -33.2% | 27% | 27% | +3.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.2% | 27% | +3.6% |
| 10% | -39.6% | 15% | -6.3% |
| 15% | -45.5% | 12% | -15.4% |
| 20% | -50.8% | 8% | -23.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $11 | $18 | +$7 (+63%) |
| Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $13 | $13 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $21 | $1 | −$21 (-97%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? | Jun 29 | $12 | +$71 | +589% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round | Jun 24 | $6 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe | Jun 12 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET | Jun 09 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 09 | $148 | +$66 | +45% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Jun 08 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? | Jun 08 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? | Jun 07 | $10 | +$3 | +26% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? | Jun 07 | $25 | +$4 | +15% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | Jun 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Jun 06 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 15 | $12 | −$9 | -78% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9? | Apr 11 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? | Apr 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Apr 09 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | Apr 09 | $17 | −$7 | -42% |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? | Mar 04 | $7 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? | Mar 04 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | Mar 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Feb 28 | $2 | $0 | +11% |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | Feb 28 | $6 | +$20 | +335% |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 | Feb 28 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |